We don’t wish to be alarmists, and we hope our concerns turn out to be unfounded as the year progresses, but it is a bit unsettling today to find Los Angeles on a short list of cities reporting increases in murders so far this year. The other major cities reporting that murder is on the rise are New York, Chicago and Philadelphia, according to a USA Today story.

Some good news is that overall violent crime is down 13 percent in Los Angeles so far this year – but murders are up from 102 last year to 111 this year. Our concerns are heightened by decreased police coverage on the streets due to restrictions on police overtime, officers being forced to take time off and officers increasingly performing administrative duties because of vacant civilian positions.

Former Chief Bratton put it most clearly when he commented that every time a person is murdered, it not only takes an emotional toll on the family and the community, it cost about $1 million in economic damage to society. A Rand Corp. study released earlier this year showed the unmistakable correlation between police coverage and crime. As the size of a police force increases, crime – and the costs associated with it – go down. Moreover, Rand’s analysis showed the benefits of having additional officers and preventing crime significantly outweigh the personnel costs of the officers.

As police know all too well, crime tends to increase with summer temperatures. We sincerely hope the troubling trend in murders in Los Angeles turns out to be a statistical aberration. But we can’t help being uneasy.